Market Commentary
Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news. Get stock market updates from top LPL Financial research strategists. Stay up-to-date on financial market trends and understand stock market predictions.
Weekly Market Commentary
Closing Out Our Equities Overweight
June 5, 2023 | LPL Research
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Stocks have had a nice run, but at higher prices, the bar for further gains gets higher. We have recently made the case in this publication that there are a lot of reasons to expect the market to go higher between now and year end. But with stocks at higher valuations, high-quality bonds offering attractive yields, an S&P 500 Index with concentrated leadership facing technical resistance at 4,300, and an elevated risk of a late-2023 recession, we think it makes sense to be a bit careful here. Importantly, though, neutral is not bearish.
How Much of a Problem is Concentrated Leadership for Stocks?
May 30, 2023 | LPL Research
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The mega-cap technology companies have powered the broad market higher this year. In fact, the 8.1% gain in the S&P 500 year to date has been driven entirely by six mega-cap stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG/L). Is this narrow leadership a problem for stocks looking forward? We try to answer that question below.
Will History Rhyme? A Fed Pause Has Been Good for Fixed Income
May 22, 2023 | LPL Research
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Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk—even cash. And the big risk with cash is reinvestment risk. That is, while short-term rates are currently elevated, the risk is these rates won’t last and upon maturity, investors will have to reinvest proceeds at lower rates. And if this current cycle follows history, we could see lower core bond yields over the next year, which would mean cash-only investors may miss out on these higher yields. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends investors maintain a neutral duration relative to benchmarks with the expectation that Treasury yields are likely headed lower (or at least not much higher) over the next few quarters.
Earnings Update: Better than Feared Undersells These Results
May 15, 2023 | LPL Research
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First quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has caused us to regret titling our earnings preview commentary on April 10, “Malaise Continues.” While the “better than feared” label fit the past couple of earnings seasons quite well, based on the magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, that’s probably underselling it. There’s plenty to worry about the rest of the year (debt limit, recession, tightening financial conditions, a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy mistake, among them), but the risk of an additional sharp contraction in profit margins has come way down.
King Dollar Still Rules: Why It Continues to Reign
May 8, 2023 | LPL Research
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Much has been written lately about the threats facing the reserve currency status enjoyed by the U.S. dollar. “De-dollarization” headlines appear on a near-daily basis, suggesting the dollar’s reign is in looming jeopardy, while counter arguments point out there isn’t another currency with the depth, transparency, and reliability associated with the dollar. Still, critics accuse the U.S. of having “weaponized” the dollar, that is, punishing other countries with sanctions and freezing assets.
Sell in May: Does This Stock Market Adage Come into Play
May 1, 2023 | LPL Research
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“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries and stories in the financial press floods in about this popular, but overused, stock market adage. Here we take our annual look at this historical seasonal pattern which, as you will see below, has started to lose some of its street cred recently.
Draining the Lifeblood of the Economy: The Small Business Sector
April 24, 2023 | LPL Research
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Investors use various analogies to describe the importance of small businesses in the domestic economy. Some refer to the small business sector as the backbone or the lifeblood of the economy.
A Closer Look at Commercial Real Estate Market
April 17, 2023 | LPL Research
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The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the post-pandemic world has produced structural changes that will likely weigh on the sector, especially within the retail and office segments.
Earnings Preview – Malaise Continues
April 10, 2023 | LPL Research
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First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with some big banks reporting toward the end of the week. In some ways this quarter’s earnings season will probably be déjà vu all over again—earnings declines and cautious guidance, reductions in estimates, but better than feared.
Who Is Right, Federal Reserve or Financial Markets?
April 3, 2023 | LPL Research
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Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right? The markets are pricing in several rate cuts by the end of this year, while the Federal Reserve communicated more rate hikes with an expectation of holding rates up throughout the balance of 2023.
The 36-Hour SVB Collapse and Hierarchy of Blame
March 27, 2023 | LPL Research
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A lot has changed in the past few weeks, both in terms of expectations for interest rates and lost confidence in the health of the banking system as a result of the sharp rise in interest rates that has led to some things “breaking,” as we wrote about here last week. Here we share some thoughts on who’s to blame for the ongoing banking crisis and reiterate how we are telling investors to adjust, or not adjust, their asset allocations in light of ongoing market volatility.
Wading Through Financial Stability Risks: An Action Plan
March 20, 2023 | LPL Research
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different.
Stress in Banking System | Latest Equity Asset Allocation Views
March 13, 2023 | LPL Research
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Last week did not play out how we anticipated. Coming into the week, it was all about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and the February jobs report.
No Landing. No Sense: Suggesting an Economy Makes “No Landing” Makes No Sense
March 6, 2023 | LPL Research
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Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity.
Debt Ceiling Primer: What You Need to Know
February 27, 2023 | LPL Research
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While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.
What’s Changed in the Markets in 2023 and What it Could Mean
February 21, 2023 | LPL Research
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Markets have adjusted to several changes this year. The pace at which inflation has cooled is slowing. The market has started to believe the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “higher for longer” message.
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
February 13, 2023 | LPL Research
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Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question, with all due respect to William Shakespeare. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
Brightening Outlook for International Equities: Have the Tides Turned
February 6, 2023 | LPL Research
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Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022.