Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news. Get stock market updates from top LPL Financial research strategists. Stay up-to-date on financial market trends and understand stock market predictions.

Weekly Market Commentary

Brightening Outlook for International Equities: Have the Tides Turned

February 6, 2023   |   LPL Research
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Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022.

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Will January’s Market Hit the Trifecta? The Seasonal Indicators

January 30, 2023   |   LPL Research
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The script has been flipped in 2023. Last year’s underperformers have turned into outperformers this year, driving the S&P 500 Index up over 5% this month.

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A Feisty Bull-Bear Debate: Weighing the Pros and Cons

January 23, 2023   |   LPL Research
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The latest episode of the debate between stock market bulls and bears has gotten more interesting. For every valid point from one side, there’s an equally compelling argument on the other side.

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Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone

January 17, 2023   |   LPL Research
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Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. Lackluster global growth, ongoing profit margin pressures from inflation, and negative currency impacts are likely to translate into a year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings for the quarter.

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Market, Stocks, and Bonds Lessons Learned from 2022

January 9, 2023   |   LPL Research
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We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, LPL Research has a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.

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2023 Market Outlook: LPL Research Takes a Look at the Year Ahead

January 3, 2023   |   LPL Research
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2022 was a dizzying year as markets and the global economy continued to find itself out of balance due to the still present aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy response to it.

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Historic Year for Central Bank Activity and Rate Hikes

December 19, 2022   |   LPL Research
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) wrapped up its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year last week, where it hiked short-term interest rates for the seventh time in as many meetings, taking the fed funds rate to 4.5% (upper bound).

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December Down but Not Out: Seasonality Trends Point to Market Recovery

December 12, 2022   |   LPL Research
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Despite the S&P 500 Index starting December with five consecutive days of losses, we think December is down but not out. December often starts slow but historically has been a strong month.

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Resilient Consumers Have Not Saved Retail Stocks

December 5, 2022   |   LPL Research
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Economic and corporate data support the initial strong reads on holiday retail sales despite the macro headwinds, reinforcing the idea that today’s consumer is in a better position than usual at this point in the business cycle. 

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Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Equity and Fixed Income Market Performance

November 21, 2022   |   LPL Research
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Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could be volatile for stocks due to elevated inflation and interest rate risk.

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Inflation and Rising Rates Supports Value

November 14, 2022   |   LPL Research
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The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years. However, the debate is heating up as investors begin to consider whether the pendulum will swing back to growth if inflation and interest rates decline in 2023.

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How Midterm Elections May Move Markets

November 7, 2022   |   LPL Research
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Midterm elections are upon us, with Election Day on Tuesday. Republicans are strongly favored to win the House, and the Senate is roughly a tossup. We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver will likely be central banks’ efforts to tame inflation. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we look at why the stock market may respond favorably to the midterm election, whatever the outcome.

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Federal Reserve Preview: TRICK or Treat?

October 31, 2022   |   LPL Research
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With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. 

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Three Things to Know About Recessions: The 3 D’s

October 24, 2022   |   LPL Research
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If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. This week’s commentary will remind us of three things we know about historical recessions.

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Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down

October 17, 2022   |   LPL Research
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Expectations are very low for this earnings season. The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. The chorus of analysts and strategists calling for big cuts to estimates has gotten louder.

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Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy

October 10, 2022   |   LPL Research
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As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to emphasize the Fed’s commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher. Markets are currently pricing in another 75-basis point rate hike at the November 2 Fed meeting as calls for the Fed to halt its aggressive campaign are mounting. 

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